Though daily COVID-19 infections across the State have seen a decline, the growth rate of total confirmed cases between May 19 and 26 is higher in the rest of Karnataka than Bengaluru Urban. A study by Project Jeevan Raksha confirms the fears of a surge in infection in rural areas.
According to the analysis, the seven-day MGR for Bengaluru Urban reduced to 5% between May 19 and May 26, from the 9% during the previous week [May 12 to 19]. But, for the rest of Karnataka, the MGR went up from 6 to 11% during the corresponding period.
The districts reporting a high MGR were Uttara Kannada (18%), Chitradurga (17%), Chikkamagaluru (16%) and Mysuru, Gadag, Belagavi, and Hassan (14%). Those with a low seven-day MGR were Bidar (2%), Kalaburagi (3%), and Bagalkot and Vijayapura (7%).
According to Mysore Sanjeev, convener of Project Jeevan Raksha, a higher MGR indicates a shorter doubling period, which also leads to an increased demand for medical infrastructure and resources to reduce mortality. A lower MGR indicates a longer doubling period and a “sign of recovery”, he added.
Speaking to The Hindu, Mr. Sanjeev feared that the MGR in the rest of Karnataka could also lead to a higher mortality in June.
The week [ending May 26] saw the average daily deaths in the State increase to 518 from 420 the previous week. The average deaths in Bengaluru Urban rose to 273 from 182 during the same period and in the rest of Karnataka, it went up from 238 to 245. With the lockdown in force till 6 a.m. of June 7, Mr. Sanjeev suggested that a partial easing of norms can be considered in districts that showed an MGR between 2 and 9% for two consecutive weeks.
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